On paper, Mexico’s new president Claudia Sheinbaum will become one of the world’s most powerful women when she takes office this week.

She will benefit from a supermajority in Congress, significant control over the courts and a strengthened military as she takes over a country that is the United States’ largest trading partner.

In practice, however, the longtime left-wing activist faces growing challenges, including questions about the future of the country’s democracy and his credit rating.

She will have to overcome these obstacles under the shadow of her political mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Since Sheinbaum’s landslide victory in June, the charismatic incumbent leader has appeared to undermine her, announcing likely cabinet members and pushing through a major judicial overhaul that she will have to implement.

She joined the left-wing nationalist on its farewell tour every week, where supporters buy “amlito» dolls and shout “Don’t go!” to the popular leader.

“López Obrador’s message from the moment Claudia Sheinbaum won the election. . . it’s that (his) triumph is due to him,” said Humberto Beck, professor at the Center for International Studies at Colegio de México. “He will not allow any deviation.”

Investors and the media are wondering whether Sheinbaum, a former academic, might secretly want to pursue more moderate policies than his increasingly radical predecessor, who presented his rule as having brought about a “fourth transformation” of Mexico, comparable to his war of independence. .

But in his own speeches, Sheinbaum promises “no regression” and has supported López Obrador’s policies of increasing social welfare programs, giving more power to the military and pushing for radical reform to elect all judges of the country.

Like many of his supporters, she refers to the nationalist president in reverential, quasi-religious terms, even promoting the book he plans to write from the solitude of his rural ranch.

“We must all preserve his legacy,” she said this month at the congress of the ruling Morena party. “We have his books, speeches, documentaries, lectures and daily teachings. . . thank you president, forever!

With the leadership of Congress and the party, half of his cabinet, and millions of supporters considered more loyal to him than to her, any move by Sheinbaum to distance himself from López Obrador on policy would have to be highly strategic, analysts said.

“If she allows him to impose his agenda, she will be a very weak president. . . and criticized for this, but if it does not do so, it could also be weak or suffer attacks from its own troops,” said José del Tronco, professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences of Latin America.

“We don’t know if she will be good at playing the careful, strategic game of chess that she will have to play.”

A former student activist who grew up in the capital’s left-wing academic circles, Sheinbaum has been a loyal ally of López Obrador for more than 20 years.

She supported him through three presidential campaigns and the construction of Morena, before leading the capital as a relatively low-key mayor for four and a half years, until 2023.

During his tenure, homicides declined, but record numbers of people disappeared; it electrified public transport, but construction collapsed after a crackdown on permits.

Since his years in a male-led student movement, Sheinbaum’s career has been marked by discretion in male-dominated environments, said political analyst Blanca Heredia.

“She doesn’t try to be noticed,” she says. “She is strategic, ambitious. . . and builds strong relationships based on trust.

His communication and management styles are markedly different from those of his mentor. His recent press conferences have generally lasted less than an hour, compared to two to three for López Obrador’s famous morning press conferences.

Where the charismatic president naturally adds local slang and cultural references, going off on long tangents, Sheinbaum’s responses are more direct. She has a reputation for being a demanding manager.

“Based on what Claudia did in Mexico, I don’t think there will be a head-on confrontation,” Heredia said. “(She) will put her own stamp on her policies.”

However, López Obrador has built a structure around his successor that will make it difficult for him to deviate from his doctrine. After promising to retire to his rural ranch after leaving office, he said in recent weeks that he would stay in the capital “to acclimatize for a few days.”

Despite his popularity, he also left Sheinbaum with some forbidding issues. Mexico’s economy is slowing sharply despite high government spending, and there are growing concerns that the investment grade status the country has held since 2000 is under threat.

Organized crime has taken control of parts of the country; the combined number of homicides and missing persons has reached record levels, and residents of major cities from Culiacán to Tuxtla Gutiérrez are living in fear.

The power grid is also becoming distorted. Before becoming a politician, Sheinbaum was a physicist specializing in energy. The industry hopes she will quietly move away from López Obrador’s nationalist and fossil fuel-focused policies and accelerate the country’s green transition.

“This is probably the area where we expect the most change,” said Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets analyst at Capital Economics. “The problem is that it will be limited by Mexico’s public finances.”

The first sign of the extent to which Sheinbaum will toe López Obrador’s line is expected to come in November, when she is expected to present a budget that includes a drastic reduction in Mexico’s growing budget deficit to keep public finances under control.

Investors will be watching how much budget it allocates to state-owned oil giant Pemex and whether it will make tough policy decisions to meet budget demands.

He also has just months left before the June 2025 election to replace half of the country’s federal judges, giving him little time to assuage growing investor fears that the move would pose a serious risk to the rule of law. .

The US presidential elections in November could pose another major stumbling block: while Sheinbaum said the North American trade deal, USMCA, was “fundamental”, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and former president, threatens to impose customs duties on American companies if they invest south of the border.

Del Tronco said Sheinbaum would only be able to show his true colors if the outside environment became too difficult.

“Will she be ready to sacrifice herself for the cause of López Obrador’s (transformation)? he asked. “Or will she want to survive.” . . and sacrifice his father like all consistent leaders do?