Even foreign countries, through their embassies in Kampala or visiting delegations, now consider making courtesy calls to him an essential part of their service.

In neighboring Rwanda, he is welcomed almost like a head of state. He is, of course, an insider, and the entity of which he is an insider is the First Family – which many believe is the true center of power of the Ugandan state.

This matters to many sections of Ugandan society. The economy is not doing well; or rather, it continues to grow, but the peak growth rates observed from the mid-1990s to the early 21st century are now behind us.

Companies are struggling with bank loans, unpaid rents and low consumer demand.

From musicians to steel producers, hotel owners to media house owners, producers to carriers – everyone needs financial rescue or debt relief, and the only entity that can intervene now is the state, i.e. the president.

What Muhoozi says publicly, on social media, matters. Businesses, marriages and reputations now depend on the help the Museveni family can offer them.

Muhoozi, however, violated virtually every code of conduct in power politics. The secrecy of power depends on confidentiality. He made public what is usually kept strictly secret in politics.

By reading Muhoozi’s tweets, you can get a free first-hand view of Museveni’s presidency. No one seems to be able to stop him or stop tweeting for very long.

During the Easter Sunday holiday of 2023, Muhoozi and his wife met President and Mrs Museveni for lunch. A photo from this meeting was spread on social media.

Without going into details, let’s just say that Muhoozi was asked to stop tweeting.

He did this, which is why he said almost nothing on social media for the rest of 2023 and the first half of this year.

Apart from wishing him a happy birthday, wishing all his colleagues and re-tweeting the news released by media houses, the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 were largely a quiet period for Muhoozi.

And suddenly, in late July 2024, Muhoozi broke his silence and was back in full swing with a new season of bombastic tweets.

Ignoring his father’s cautious stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Muhoozi on August 4 stated:

“Last year I was ready to defend Moscow against aggressors. Fortunately, our Russian allies won this war. Today I am even more ready to defend Israel and Jerusalem from any threat… If anyone threatens Israel, we will defeat him.”

The declaration of support for Russia in the first weeks of the start of the war in 2022 got him into trouble with his father, which partially led to the announcement of his resignation from military service on March 18, 2022.

The August 4 tweet showed his unrepentant support for Russia and disregard for the official, neutral position of the Ugandan government and President Museveni.

He remained silent for over 10 days, then returned on August 16 with an even more effusive, hyperbolic comment:

“The US must apologize to Uganda for removing us from Agoa. We must be reinstated immediately. Then we will talk about compensation for all the soldiers we lost in Somalia. On their orders.

All this to give context to readers who may not be on social media, may not be on Platform CDF).

This brings us to Muhoozi’s post from last week. Even after two years, during which most of social media and political commentators had become accustomed to his tweets, it was truly dramatic.

September 21: “I would like to announce that in 2026 I will not be on the ballot. Almighty God told me to focus on His army first. That is why I fully support President Yoweri Museveni in the next elections.”

He posted this at 1:58 am. Eight hours later, at 9:28 a.m., he posted the following message: “All my millions of followers. All PLU supporters. We will all, as one man and without exception, support President Museveni in 2026.”

“As for PLU members who want to run for parliament, there is nothing stopping them from doing so. PLU is a civic organization, not a political party. You are totally welcome to enter the competition. For now, I recommend signing up for NRM. It is the political party that most closely aligns with our values.” (14:26)

Since Muhoozi’s birth in 2022, the public, local media, political class and international media have concluded that this was the moment Uganda had been waiting for since the late 1990s.

Many thought that finally President Museveni had officially introduced his son to the public to be introduced as Crown Prince.

According to public opinion, the succession process has already begun.

Regular readers of the Sunday Monitor will know that this author was one of the few people in the country who expressed opposing views.

In an article in the Sunday Monitor in early May 2022, I argued that Muhoozi’s birthday party and rallies took both the President and the First Lady by surprise.

It was only when Rwandan President Paul Kagame confirmed that he would come to the House of Representatives for a birthday dinner at Muhoozi’s invitation that the first couple hurriedly prepared the birthday dinner.

Even as political rallies gained momentum and the “MK Movement” was later renamed the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), even as Muhoozi seemed to launch a nationwide campaign at a rally in Masaka, I remained steadfast in the belief that it was all shouting and window dressing .

Museveni was not behind Muhoozi’s political activities and, as I wrote here, he was in fact tearing the First Family apart.

When Muhoozi was appointed CDF, it was certainly the last step in the succession plan. Not so, I argued; in fact, it was a disciplinary demotion by Museveni.

During a mini-cabinet reshuffle in March this year, he appointed some of Muhoozi’s PLU mobilizers to the cabinet not in preparation for a smooth transfer of power from father to son, as most thought, but as a tactical move to demobilize Muhoozi.

I posted this on X/Twitter on March 22: “In the face of serious divisions in the family, (Museveni) dismantles the MK Movement, absorbing some of its key hands into his cabinet and completely binding MK (Muhoozi Kainerugaba) to a temporary job in the CDF.”

That is why Muhoozi’s announcement last week that he will not run for president and his urging his supporters to support President Museveni in 2026 came as no surprise to me.

I have been repeating this from the beginning, consistently since March 2022.

The following statement by Muhoozi, also from September 21, in which he abandoned any remaining pretense of democracy and gave the country a glimpse of the post-Museveni era will remain for analysis in a future Sunday Monitor column: “No civilian will lead Uganda after President Museveni. The security forces will not allow this. The next leader will be a soldier or a policeman.”

Muhoozi later deleted it, but in the age of the Internet and digital devices, there will always be people who take screenshots of social media posts for archival purposes.

Muhoozi’s tweet was clear: After Museveni = military dictatorship.